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Risk Identification

Introduction

In this step, screening of existing risks within the water cycle should be carried out. The main objective is to identify risk sources (elements which alone or in combination have the intrinsic potential to give rise to risk), hazards and risk factors (something that can have an effect on the risk level, by changing the probability or the consequences of an event) at integrated level, and how sensitive these might be to the expected regional climate trends (climate change impact). Potential events (sequence of individual occurrences of consequences) can also be explored to help assess potential risks. Assessment of all exposure modes is also important when identifying risk. The integrated approach with the various stakeholders, the systematic description of the UWS and the use of PREPARED WCSP tools all help to prevent ‘overlooking’ potential risks.

The relevant aspects from similar step at SSP level should be considered, adjusted to the purpose of an integrated analysis at water cycle level. It is not intended to repeat actions from the SSP nor carry out analysis at same detailed level as for system’s level. However, relevant aspects not considered within the SSP should be tackled at water cycle level. Specific issues include those not covered by individual utilities but that may be relevant for the objectives and the consideration of how each system impacts the others and the water cycle.

Historical data should be used to ensure that information from past events is considered; useful data can be derived from the case under analysis as well as from events in other situations, and be compiled, for instance, in a register of historical accidents database.

The PREPARED risk identification database (RIDB) incorporates information intended to facilitate the application of this step since it provides a ‘checklist’ of known risks based on industry knowledge and lessons learned from

historical events (Almeida et al., 2011b). A systematic procedure based on fault trees and event trees is proposed by Almeida et al. (2013a) to identify the WCSP events. Fault trees can be used to identify the possible ways in which a hazardous event may arise, while the event trees allow exploration of the possible consequences following that hazardous event. These three tools facilitate the application of Step 3.

In practice, Steps 3 and 4 are carried out concurrently. These tasks can turn out to be extensive when a significant number of risk sources and risk factors exist and when systems are large and complex. By prioritising the risks in Step 4, the greatest effort is put into the most significant risks. Risks with a lower priority are (re-)assessed in the next cycle of the WCSP.

Omissions during the risk identification and analysis imply that the other risks that are missed are retained by the stakeholders.



 


Key actions


  1. Identify relevant hazards, risk sources and risk factors

  2. Assess the potential effect of climate change trends

  3. Explore scenarios and potential events




Download the
Risk Identification DataBaseRisk_identification_files/D2.2.5%20RIDB_Final_protected.xlsx
Download the
Hazard listRisk_identification_files/Hazards%20list.docx

Stakeholders discussing the Eindhoven water cycle

using a GIS table

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